Will “Pumpkin Spice” Be Overshadowed This Season?

September 24, 2026

Hoodie Analytics · Seasonal Trends

Pumpkin Spice has become a staple each Fall for consumable products across many industries. This year, there might be a new dynamic for cannabis brands and retailers: sales of “Fall-flavored” products have grown to be almost as large as Pumpkin Spice.

Just a few years ago, sales of “Fall flavors” (aside from Pumpkin) added up to about one quarter of what pumpkin-named cannabis products sold during that time. These Fall products carried names and flavors like “apple,” “harvest,” and “autumn.” Last year, those “Fall flavors” sold more than three-quarters the level of Pumpkin Spice, even with Pumpkin growing, too.

So, the question in the headline is a fair one to ask.

Two baskets, same season: they’re not winning the same way

Hoodie’s weekly cannabis market data shows a spike every September through December for both baskets. Season over season, though, the size of Fall’s spike relative to Pumpkin’s has moved a lot, and the gap between them has been closing:

Season (Aug–Dec)	Pumpkin, YoY	Fall, YoY	Fall as % of Pumpkin
2023	+45%	−12%	25%
2024	−28%	+48%	52%
2025	+29%	+93%	77%

Season = Aug–Dec sales, both baskets. 2023–2025 are the three full seasons with a prior-year comparison on record.

Across the entire record to date, the partial 2022 season through the opening weeks of 2026, Pumpkin’s cumulative sales are still running at roughly 1.7 times Fall’s. Pumpkin remains the larger of the two baskets in total; what’s changing is the direction of travel each season, not (yet) a changing of the guard in cumulative terms.

Dig into why, and the two product sets turn out to be moving in opposite directions on the format that defines them.

Inside Pumpkin, vapes have advanced at the expense of edibles and pre-rolls. Vape’s share of Pumpkin’s seasonal sales has run in the neighborhood of 70–85% in recent years. Edibles, meanwhile, shrank from about 18% of the mix down to essentially zero. Pre-rolls have bounced around in the high single digits to high teens. Across all four seasons, Pumpkin’s format mix has consolidated around a single category: vape.

Inside Fall, the opposite has happened: pre-rolls have taken over, and vapes are what’s losing ground. Fall’s vape share actually started out high: a little over half the mix in 2022, spiking to about two-thirds in 2023, before falling to roughly 40% in 2024 and about a third in 2025. Pre-rolls did the inverse: from just under half in 2022, dipping to under a third in 2023, then climbing to just over half in both 2024 and 2025, now the largest single category in the Fall basket.

Put simply: store buyers must view these products carefully when choosing items and formats.

“Vapes are consolidating Pumpkin; pre-rolls are taking over Fall”: share of each basket’s Aug–Dec sales by product category, 2022–2025.

What the numbers show

Recent seasons show the gap closing over time between Pumpkin and Fall. Both baskets spike every September through December and go quiet the rest of the year, and season to season, Fall’s slice of the combined total keeps climbing.

Fall’s season total has grown from about a quarter of Pumpkin’s size in 2023 to more than three-quarters in 2025, and the first four weeks of the 2026 season already show Fall running ahead of Pumpkin, the first time that’s happened at this point in the cycle in any of the last four years.

“Fall closes in on Pumpkin”: Fall season sales as a percentage of Pumpkin season sales, Aug–Dec by year, 2023–2025.

The two product groups also peak at different points in the season. Excluding 2022 (the panel’s first, partial season), Pumpkin has peaked later in each of the last three years, typically in late November or early December, while Fall has consistently peaked earlier, around mid-October.

“Pumpkin and Fall peak at different points in the season”: each basket’s weekly sales indexed to 100% at its own peak week within the Aug–Dec season, one panel per year, 2022–2025.

And the combined pie (Pumpkin and Fall-flavor together) keeps shifting toward Fall. Pumpkin took roughly 80% of the combined seasonal total at its high point in 2023; by the 2026 season’s opening weeks, Fall was already the larger slice.

“Fall’s slice of the combined pie keeps growing”: Pumpkin’s and Fall’s share of their combined Aug–Dec sales, by year (2026 reflects only the first four weeks of that season).

What this means for shelf planning

This is where dispensary shelf analysis is important. A buyer who reads “pumpkin” as the whole opportunity for the Fall season, and then orders heavily into vapes, would be missing the format where the rest of Fall flavor is actually growing. Treat the two as separate assortment decisions, not one flavor category with two names.

Beyond assortment, scheduling matters too. Fall’s seasonal peak has consistently landed in mid-October, well ahead of Pumpkin’s late-November/early-December peak. A buyer following a “fall reorder” could use cannabis out-of-stock alerts to aid ordering and scheduling.

Pumpkin has been the larger product group in every full season through 2025, though the four-week 2026 read is the first time Fall has come out ahead at this point in the cycle. The action is incremental: treat fall-flavored pre-rolls as the fastest-growing line worth a dedicated buy, not a reason to redirect existing pumpkin-vape spend.

Re-check the mix after Green Wednesday and again once the season closes.

Will 2026 close the gap?

The trajectory supports “Fall is on track to overtake Pumpkin” as a current trend. Fall’s season total grew 48% and then 93% year-over-year in 2024 and 2025, a cannabis sales velocity that Pumpkin hasn’t come close to matching; Pumpkin’s own season totals swung between a roughly 30% gain and a roughly 28% decline over the same stretch. In the first four weeks of the 2026 season, Fall is running at roughly six to seven times its year-ago pace for that same four-week window, versus about 70% ahead for Pumpkin, and for the first time in four years of data, Fall is ahead of Pumpkin in raw dollars at this early point in the season.

Ready to plan your Fall assortment on more than a hunch? Hoodie’s cannabis buyer intelligence and cannabis brand growth platform put patterns like these in front of retail buyers and brand marketers before the next reorder point, not after.

Data: Hoodie Analytics’ cannabis retail analytics, drawn from a weekly U.S. sales panel, Category/Segment cut, Sept. 4, 2022–Aug. 23/30, 2026. “Pumpkin” = products with “pumpkin” in the product name (dollars sum). “Fall” = the broader fall/harvest/spice-flavor product set minus Pumpkin, so the two series count independent products/sales. A season is defined as August–December of each year. Category-level figures (vape/pre-roll/edible share) are aggregated across all contributing retailers. Cannabis benchmarks are drawn from public company and media reporting, cited below.

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